Mike Smith

Winter Storm Warning

Overnight: A slight chance of snow after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday: Snow, mainly after 8am. High near 30. Calm wind becoming northeast between 7 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

Friday Night: Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 19. East wind between 8 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Saturday: A chance of snow showers, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. East wind between 7 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday: Rain and snow likely, becoming all snow after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

This will not be portentous…Let me enthrall my readers…Winter like conditions for Sunday and Sunday night around the region. Snow and sleet around the Orange county area. Temps around 40 degrees for Sunday. Rain and sleet will begin after 2 pm. Possible accumulation could reach .5 inches in some locals

Temps will be normal this holiday.

This
Afternoon
Slight Chance Rain/Snow Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%
Slight Chc
Rain/Snow
Hi 42°F Tonight

Mostly Cloudy
Mostly
Cloudy
Lo 28°F Thanksgiving
Day
Mostly Sunny
Mostly
Sunny
Hi 44°F Thursday
Night
Partly Cloudy
Partly
Cloudy
Lo 28°F

The Wind tower has been finished and is wind safe! Standing at 46 feet 1 inch tall. The tower is 90 feet from any obstacle. 100 feet of wire was needed. This is a bit smaller then Smith Tower in Newburgh which stands at 60 feet. I think our towers are the tallest in the region as far as ‘home built’ goes.

The equipment we installed to measure the wind is a Oregon Scientific at this location. The highest wind speed this afternoon was measured at 23.7 mph at 57 degrees. When online you will see wind speed every 5 seconds updated. Smith Tower is every second!
This will be online on Sunday.

As the cold front approaches, we will see wind today and showers with nice mild temps.
I will be installing a 40 foot tower today at my home which sits at 457 feet elevation, just a mile from Stewart Airport. Will keep you posted.

This
Afternoon
Heavy Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 90%
Heavy
Rain
Hi 66°F Tonight

Showers Chance for Measurable Precipitation 100%
Showers

Lo 50°F Sunday

Slight Chance Showers Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%
Slight Chc
Showers
Hi 51°F Sunday
Night
Partly Cloudy
Partly
Cloudy
Lo 32°F Monday

Slight Chance Rain/Snow Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%
Slight Chc
Rain/Snow
Hi 47°F
okx_thumb1.gif

 
Tonight

Mostly Clear
Mostly
Clear
Lo 31°F
Veterans
Day

Mostly Sunny
Mostly
Sunny
Hi 47°F
Tuesday
Night

Partly Cloudy
Partly
Cloudy
Lo 26°F
Wednesday

Mostly Sunny
Mostly
Sunny
Hi 47°F
         

             
               

Today: A slight chance of rain or drizzle before noon. Patchy fog before noon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 65. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday: Showers likely, mainly after 10am. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 62. Calm wind becoming south between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 55. West wind between 3 and 10 mph.

Sunday Night: A slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 52.

Today: Rain, mixing with snow after 3pm. High near 43. North wind between 11 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Tonight: Rain and snow showers likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Breezy, with a west wind between 21 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.


HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY. CLOUDY SKIES EARLY

MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS…WHICH WILL LAST

INTO MIDWEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL  CHANGE AGAIN LATE IN

THE WEEK AND PRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN.

 

STRONG SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES BY THIS EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISH AND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO DECOUPLE AND GO
CALM…ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SECTIONS. THIS WILL PROVIDE AND
EXCELLENT SETUP FOR FROST. A FROST ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE OUTER
ZONES IN NY/NJ AND CT FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SUFFOLK COUNTY
ON LONG ISLAND IS QUESTIONABLE WITH HOW COLD THE PINE BARREN
REGION CAN GET. HOWEVER IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
DECOUPLE HERE…AND THE AREA THAT DOES GET FROST IS TOO SMALL TO
WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SURROUNDING ZONE.

 

.AVIATION 
 
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
 
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA
BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WINDS DIRECTION GENERALLY FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT. IN
ADDITION…SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME OF THE GUSTS
COULD REACH 20 KT. ANY GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
 
THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY…HOWEVER TIMING AND
LOCATIONS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
TAFS. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD NOT REDUCE CONDITIONS BELOW
VFR.
 
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…VFR THROUGH WED NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THU…AND
GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY. SUB VFR POSSIBLE LATE
THU AND FRI.

 


Tuesday, September 23, 2008

I think a East coast storm might brew. This is the time of the year we can see development occur in the Atlantic. If you look back in history, we are in peak time. Hurricanes that form now will typically move quickly to the North and then Northeast. We do of coarse have to keep in mind of cold fronts. Cold fronts play a large role on the way they effect a Hurricanes direction. Without those cold fronts,  a Hurricane would have no steering currents. If you are looking for a East coast hit in the middle of Summer, you would want a cold front to bring it up the coast. Of course timing of the cold front is everything. Let’s not forget a Bermuda high. This is another subject!

A fast approaching  cold front, would simply push the Hurricane off the coast. You cannot compare a Hurricane to a cold front. Cold fronts are much bigger and generally  have much denser air. Hurricanes cannot push a cold front of course. Cold fronts can weaken and steer it to a different direction. The way I see it, cold fronts protect the East coast most of the time. If a Hurricane has some luck, it can sneak in and cause some problems.

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