After a breezy day here at Smith Tower in Newburgh, temperatures will begin to drop to near freezing tonight.

Veteran’s Day looks mostly sunny with winds of 10 to 15 mph, slightly less than those of todays. Temperatures will struggle to hit 50 in most areas away from the city. Tomorrow night looks very chilly with lows in the upper 20’s.

Wednesday will be our last nice day before clouds and showers move in late Wednesday night. Rain will linger into Saturday before our next cold front moves in. Rainfall amounts look to average 1 inch.  I’ll give more details when we get closer.

Til’ then,

S.S.

After a rather long stretch of Indian summer weather, it will finally feel more like fall for the next week or so. The growing season which is still going strong will probably end for the suburbs of the NYC area this weekend. Lows will approach freezing and below sometime this weekend. Normally we see our first freeze around the 10th of October.

The weather for flying will be spectacular this weekend with great visibilities. Just watch out for late night and early morning fog to be patchy along the rivers and valleys.

Winds will average 10 to 15 mph throughout the weekend which is normal for the fall.

The next cold front is slated to arrive sometime on Tuesday. We can expect some showers and breezy conditions in and around the front.

More later

Beautiful fall weather is on tap for the next several days!

Tonight we will see a few showers move through bringing a tenth of an inch of rain. Winds will remain from the South or Southwest at around 5 mph.

Thursday thru Monday of next week look very pleasant with sunny skies and light breezes. Some patchy fog will plague the river valleys and mountain valleys late at night into the morning hours. No frost forseen for the next 5 days. Our growing season will continue!!

Next week is when a change to the weather will take place, probably Tuesday night into Wednesday. A strong cold front will begin to approach from the midwest and should bring a round of moderate showers with it, breezy conditions will follow (15 to 25 mph) winds and more seasonable temperatures.

After a breezy day today, we can expect more of the same on Friday. Winds averaged today between 15 and 22 mph here in my residential neighborhood, even stronger winds were reported at area airports due to less surface friction.

Friday will be breezy as well with winds much of the same as today from the West or Northwest.

A trough will approach from the west with an increase in cumulous clouds averaging 4 thousand feet agl. I’m not expecting and IFR weather on the surface. A stray shower is possible. Temperatures will remain fairly chilly with highs in the low 60’s. Tomorrow nights lows will dip into the low 40’s. No frost is expected.

Dry weather will continue into Saturday with good flying conditions with less winds.

A prolonged period of rain appears likely beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing into Saturday. Two systems to watch!

The first one will develop along the Southeast coast on Wednesday, this will eventually bring the steady rain and breezy conditions into our neck of the woods on Thursday and continue into Friday afternoon. Afterwards, a lull will take place leaving us with drizzle.

The next system which has yet to develop our Hispanola today should begin to develop and track North or Northwest on Wednesday. It’s hard to say how the interaction between both systems will pan out. I can say that rain is a very good possibility. Locally heavy rain totals will be likely due to the trajectory from southeast to Northwest over the terrain. 2 to 4 inches is possible for the mid-atlantic and NY Metro area. Windy conditions  will be mainly confined to the coastal area with winds 15 to 25 mph. Inland areas will experience winds of 10 to 15 mph Thursday night. Saturday is still up in the air, but I will keep posting as changes come about.

More later

Right now in the lower Hudson Valley, skies are clear and winds are light from the south. In six hours from now it will be the difference from night and day with heavy tropical rains. I believe the worst will be from 2:00pm til’ 11:00p.m. Winds will pick up around lunch time tomorrow.

Rainfall totals of at least 5 inches will be common along the I-95 corridor. FLYING IS NOT RECOMMENDED!!

Winds will probably cause some power outages throughout the tri-state area. Winds will be strongest at the coast.

I believe here in the Town of Newburgh, we will see winds of 20-25 mph with a top gust of 36 mph which it just puts under Tropical Storm conditions. Winds could gust to 60 mph along the south facing shores of Long Island. Our our weather station located in Bayport Marine in Bayport, NY shoud see a top gust of 52 mph. We will see!

Area airports that are prone to the wind will see gusts from 45 to 50 mph at times.

More later

After viewing the latest satellite maps, I’m noticing that Hanna is beginning to sneak under the convection which means that a intensifying storm will be underway later tonight. My take is that it makes it to a strong Cat. 1 or weak 2 by landfall tomorrow night around Cape Fear. It’s movement will increase as it heads north. I’m not quite sure how the winds will react when up into the mid-atlantic states. I can see a good swath of 20-30 mph winds inland with higher gusts along the coast, probably to 45 mph. It will highly depend on the track of the storm though.

Rainfall is the next issue, 2 to 5 inches is possible along the entire east coast ending Sunday morning.

I will issue more later.

After looking at the general pattern, I notice some hot spots in the tropics that could directly or indirectly affect most northeast cities in the next two weeks. I stated that in my last blog.

The weather for the Labor Day weekend looks very tranquil other than some thunderstorms Saturday. Highs will be slightly below normal as well as the lows.

Great flying and driving weather is on tap.

More Later

Temperatures, winds, humidity and sky conditions will all be in check for the next few days. Showers and thunderstorms will move in from the West on Sunday night and lasting through Monday afternoon. These storms will be scattered at best. After Monday, we will be in for another few days of beautiful weather. Next chance of precipitation is next Friday when a cold front and remnants of Tropical Storm Fay pass by with only scattered showers. Enjoy the fall like weather. Summer conditions will once return before the end of the month. The tropics will come alive for the East Coast in two weeks. Where and when time will tell.

More later